macro
Oil Shock Reality Check · Morning Edition
Brent crude is up 70% year-to-date. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for approximately two weeks. Your gas price has risen five cents daily for the past week.
am-briefing
macro
When the 12-Day War Hits Day 13 · Morning Edition
Iran's new Supreme Leader just made his position clear: the blockade continues indefinitely. Markets are slowly realizing this isn't a disruption—it's a siege.
macro
When Strategic Reserves Don't Work · Morning Edition
Oil above $90 means gas hits $3.80-$4.00 within weeks, costing your household an extra $144-$240 yearly. Meanwhile, fertilizer spikes are about to make groceries 3-5% pricier, your mortgage stays locked near 7%, and your 401(k) faces a potential $50,000 hit.
macro
The Thing the Consensus Is Missing · Morning Edition
Oil's 56% weekly spike means gas prices rise in two weeks, groceries in April—and your job security depends on whether your industry can absorb stagflation.
macro
The Thing the Oil Spike Isn't Telling You · Morning Edition
Gas hitting $4 a gallon costs your household $50 a month; groceries follow within six weeks. Your $500K retirement account has already lost $15-25K, and a mortgage rate jump to 5% adds $30-40 monthly to new loans.
macro
The Strait Is Not a Fear Trade Anymore · Morning Edition
Your gas bill jumps 30 cents a gallon by late March if oil holds here—that's $400-500 extra annually—and your grocery costs follow within six weeks. Meanwhile, the Fed can't cut rates to help, so your mortgage stays expensive.
macro
The Worst Possible Morning · Morning Edition
The Fed's worst fear just got real: job losses are piling up while gas and heating costs spike, squeezing your paycheck from both sides.
macro
Iran War Is Now a Market Variable · Morning Edition
Your gas bill and 401(k) are about to feel the Iran situation. Energy's spiking, defense stocks are rallying, and the Fed just got a reason to keep rates higher for longer.