Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, April 9, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, April 9, 2026 Inflation Was Already Stuck Before the War Started Personal Stakes · Est. read time 6 min The 30-Second Version Meanwhile, WTI crude punched back above $100 intraday as only seven vessels have transited
Equities surged on ceasefire relief, but Iranian fire actually increased on day one, the Strait remains shut, and the Fed has fewer reasons to cut than before the war started.
Dated Brent hit a nominal all-time high today, and the economy that has to absorb it may have already stopped growing its workforce.
Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, April 7, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, April 7, 2026 WTI Breaks $115 While the Only Sector Hiring Gets a Raise Personal Stakes · Est. read time 5 min The 30-Second Version Oil crossed $115 today and nobody blinked, which tells you something
Services inflation just posted its biggest spike since 2012 while businesses cut workers to survive it. Goldman says AI is already erasing 25,000 jobs a month. And the one sector still hiring? It just got a raise.
Israel just bombed Iran's piggy bank. The ISM Services inflation gauge posted its biggest spike since 2012. And China reserved Pacific airspace for 40 days, which is 35 days longer than you need for an exercise.
The ISM Services prices paid component just posted its biggest monthly jump since 2012. Meanwhile, Israel destroyed Iran's largest petrochemical facility and Trump says they'll have "no bridges." One of these stories determines next week. The other determines next decade.
Speculators hold massive short positions in crude oil while physical markets scream shortage. Meanwhile, nearly 270,000 Americans stopped looking for work last month. One of these facts is about to break the other.
Speculators hold massive short positions in crude oil while physical markets scream shortage. Meanwhile, nearly 270,000 Americans stopped looking for work last month. One of these facts is about to break the other.
Physical oil commands crisis prices while paper markets pretend everything's fine. Your mortgage rate doesn't care which one is right.
Trump promises Iran withdrawal in 2-3 weeks, physical oil trades $23 above futures, and your portfolio just had its best day since May
The job market was already broken before oil hit $106. Now employers won't hire but haven't started firing—yet.