macro
When Goldman Keeps Moving the Goalposts · Evening Edition
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for approximately two weeks. Goldman has revised their reopening timeline three times in nine days. The gap between those two facts is your weekend.
pm-briefing
macro
When $100 Oil Breaks Everything · Evening Edition
The Strait of Hormuz entered its thirteenth day of closure today. Iran's new Supreme Leader made it clear this isn't ending soon. The market's five-month party just ended.
macro
When the President Says "Show Some Guts" · Evening Edition
Oil war just hit your wallet: gas up 13% in a week means $25-35 extra monthly at the pump, plus food and heating costs rising on the lag. Your $500K retirement account is already down $20K.
macro
When Cabinet Members Move Markets by Accident · Evening Edition
A deleted tweet just moved oil $25 per barrel—your gas bill is about to follow, jumping 60 to 80 cents per gallon within two weeks while your grocery and heating costs spike alongside it.
macro
The Bet Buried in the Futures Curve · Evening Edition
Oil's whipsawing between $90 and $119, and your gas pump is already up $33/month. Groceries follow in April—fertilizer prices are moving now, hitting you later.
macro
The Trap the Fed Didn't Ask For · Evening Edition
Your gas bill just jumped $19 a month, and your grocery bill follows in six weeks. If crude stays above $100, budget for $3.75–$4.00 per gallon and brace for food prices to climb.
macro
The Day Both Shoes Dropped · Evening Edition
The Fed just watched 92,000 jobs vanish while oil hit $92—and now your mortgage rate, grocery bill, and job security are all hostages to their next move.
macro
The Iran Conflict Paradox: Why Stocks Rally When Oil Flows Stop · Evening Edition
Markets are betting Iran tensions stay contained, but your gas prices and portfolio are hedging different outcomes. If that bet breaks, you'll feel it at the pump before the stock market does.