Wall Street gained 1,000 points because Congress changed hands and nobody told the chips bill · Daily Briefing

In 30 seconds: US equity markets rallied sharply following midterm elections that flipped Congress to Democratic control, with the Dow posting one of its largest single-day point gains and prediction markets shifting 2028 presidential odds toward Democrats. September trade data showed a slight narrowing of the US goods and services deficit to $105 billion, but underlying trends reveal a massive surge in computer and chip imports driven by AI infrastructure demand, offsetting declines in other tariffed categories. Brent crude fell over 20% from its recent high to below $95 a barrel, dragging US wholesale gasoline to a seven-month low, while a Democrat won Texas's oil-regulating Railroad Commission for the first time in over 30 years. Trump Media stock has fallen 97% from its peak with $1.8 billion in cumulative losses, while Trump and Melania meme coins are down 98-99%, even as tariffs have failed to reduce the US trade deficit, which grew 9% over 21 months.

Dow Jones Industrial Average up 7.9% April 9th, 2025. The index gained 1,000 points, only the 28th such move in history. You could call that volatility. You could also call it a pattern. The overnight reaction was less cheerful. S&P futures plunged to a six-week low on the election results. The prior session had closed at 7,569, snapping a three-day losing streak, with a risk pivot at 7,600 and upside target at 7,700. The Momentum ETF $MTUM fell more than 2% even as the S&P 500 ETF $SPY gained more than 1%, a spread of -4.13 percentage points that could be the first of its kind on record. History offers a cheerful template. Starting with the 82nd Congress in 1951, a Democratic Congress and Republican President is the most likely combo at 22 years (out of 75). But the two worst years ever (1974 and 2008) happened these years, along with the 5th and 6th worst (1957 and 1973).

September trade deficit: $105.0B. Exports rose 1.9% while imports climbed 1.2%. A perfectly boring headline number. The interesting part is what is happening underneath it. The scale is striking. Monthly imports of computers and chips have reached an annualized pace of $1 trillion, or roughly 3% of GDP, up 2 percentage points versus 2024. Why haven't tariffs touched this category? Imports of more heavily tariffed consumer durables remain depressed. Gold: $4,075.50.

Brent crude closed at $95.29 on 2026-11-04, dropping -8.0212% on the day alone, from 103.6 to 95.29. The sell-off is part of a broader rout: Brent has now fallen roughly 20% since its intraday high last Friday, sliding to a 2-month low. Crude was trading at $104 as recently as last Friday; by today it had hit $88. That is a lot of barrels changing their mind about what they are worth. Wholesale gasoline has already plunged to a 7-month low below 275 cents per gallon, and American drivers are days away from the cheapest retail prices since March. U.S. gasoline prices at retail level: $4.45 per gallon. Democrat elected commissioner.

The meme coin losses are severe. Trump family crypto earnings: $1.4 billion. The US goods trade deficit has actually grown 9% over the last 21 months, reaching $2.19 trillion. Over the Last 21 Months vs. 21 Months Prior, the US goods trade deficit grew 9%, from $2.01 trillion to $2.19 trillion. The deficit got larger. US Goods trade deficit: $2.19 trillion. Trump family crypto earnings: $1.4 billion.