We write Personal Stakes because the media tells you what happened without explaining why it matters to you. We break down rates, inflation, policy and global events back to first principles. If you leave sharper than you came, the issue did its job.
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Wednesday, May 20, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Wednesday, May 20, 2026 The largest oil supply loss in history happened and markets shrugged because NVIDIA reports Wednesday A new Setser-Tordoir paper argues China's undervalued currency and exploding auto exports have become the
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, May 1, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, May 1, 2026 Your portfolio hit a new high and so did the price of driving to work Jet Fuel up 80% since the start of the Iran war. The Iran war and threatened closure
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, April 30, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, April 30, 2026 Inflation hit 3.5% and the S&P hit 7,200 on the same day because markets contain multitudes and also gasoline US gas prices up 44% last nine weeks. US
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, April 28, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, April 28, 2026 The UAE quit OPEC+ and oil hit $111 but sure the S&P made new highs Gold down 1.35% on the day. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, April 23, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, April 23, 2026 The Fed hoarded duration and semiconductors forgot how to lose so naturally the Strait of Hormuz caught fire Analysts and economists debate the Federal Reserve's outsized duration holdings relative to
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, April 21, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, April 21, 2026 Oil hits $100 and the Gulf needs a bailout but sure let's talk about retail sales Brent crude surged back above $100 after JD Vance cancelled his Islamabad trip amid
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, April 21, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, April 21, 2026 Iran closes a strait and Netflix doubles its profits so at least someone's shipping is going fine Gold down 0.47% on the day. Analysts are debating whether gold could
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, April 17, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, April 17, 2026 The war ended, oil cratered, stocks hit all-time highs, and gold somehow won the week anyway Gold up 1.74% on the day. The Strait of Hormuz has reopened following a US-Iran
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, April 16, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, April 16, 2026 Oil prices found the one strait they can't narrow and your mortgage found seven basis points it could Paper Brent market up >4% today. The closure of the Strait
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Wednesday, April 15, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Wednesday, April 15, 2026 Oil at $100 and the S&P at 7,000 is the market equivalent of texting "I'm fine" during a house fire TTF European natural gas price
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, April 14, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, April 14, 2026 The S&P 500 is 10 days from all-time highs and a war zone from making sense Natural Gas down 1.07% on the day. The US-Iran war has triggered a
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Monday, April 13, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Monday, April 13, 2026 Hormuz Crisis Collapses Gulf Oil Output, Prices Surge | US Existing Home Sales Disappoint, Consumer Finances Worsen The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf production shut-ins have driven OPEC+ output to