We write Personal Stakes because the media tells you what happened without explaining why it matters to you. We break down rates, inflation, policy and global events back to first principles. If you leave sharper than you came, the issue did its job.
macro
Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, October 16, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, October 16, 2026 The economy is running hot, oil is running hotter, and the Fed is running out of things not to say TJX ($TJX) down 25% over the five prior weeks. Tech and semiconductor
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, October 15, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, October 15, 2026 Inflation came in hot enough to melt your groceries and bonds somehow shrugged Headline PPI up 1.3% in Sept. September CPI and PPI came in significantly hotter than expected, with PPI
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Wednesday, October 14, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Wednesday, October 14, 2026 CoreWeave has a coin-flip chance of default and China's exports are up 36% so at least someone's thriving China's exports are up 36%. Growing concerns
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, October 13, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, October 13, 2026 The bull market turned four and got a rotation instead of a cake S&P 500 total return index up 127% since the October 2022 low. The S&P 500
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Monday, October 12, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Monday, October 12, 2026 The bull market turned four and nobody brought a card while the housing market threw a party where sellers outnumber buyers by 560,000 memory ETF $DRAM down nearly 5% today. The
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, October 8, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, October 8, 2026 Everyone has a job and nobody can afford anything, which is fine until the shipping lane explodes Oil up 5% today. Iranian strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Wednesday, October 7, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Wednesday, October 7, 2026 Everyone expects inflation to keep rising and the housing market is begging for mercy but sure let's talk about Chinese hybrids August imports of industrial supplies (petroleum, crude oil, chemicals,
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, October 6, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, October 6, 2026 The tariffs were supposed to shrink the trade deficit but the deficit just bought an AI data center instead US Goods trade deficit up 8% Last 20 Months vs. 20 Months Prior.
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Monday, October 5, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Monday, October 5, 2026 Europe builds a tariff war game while the Middle East builds a very real one China's infrastructure investment down 5.4% in the year through August. A wide-ranging debate
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, October 2, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, October 2, 2026 The G7 opened the strategic reserves and the bond market shrugged because yields go up now regardless nominal bonds down 2.3% this year. Analysts debated whether the US is experiencing fiscal
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, October 1, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, October 1, 2026 The economy added a prices-paid reading of 77.9 and a 10-year yield from 2002 but sure everything is fine year-to-date announced layoffs down 40% year-over-year.
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Wednesday, September 30, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 Diesel hits $224 a barrel and bonds hit 2007 like it's a nostalgia tour US total oil liquids production estimate up approximately 350,000 barrels per day from old estimate