America's bills now exceed its paycheck and gold just passed $4,400 so at least something's working · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, September 18, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, September 18, 2026 America's bills now exceed its paycheck and gold just passed $4,400 so at least something's working Gold up 20% over the past year. US interest costs and

The Fed may hike this week not because it believes in it but because it's terrified not to · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, September 15, 2026 The Fed may hike this week not because it believes in it but because it's terrified not to 10-Year Treasury Yield up 3 bp on the day. Markets are

The Fed cut rates 175 basis points and all you got was a 5% ten-year and six-dollar diesel · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Monday, September 14, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Monday, September 14, 2026 The Fed cut rates 175 basis points and all you got was a 5% ten-year and six-dollar diesel Silver down 1.49% on the day. The US 10-year Treasury

The Fed's cure for inflation might be inflationary, which is fun when diesel hits $6 and gold just shrugs · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, September 11, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, September 11, 2026 The Fed's cure for inflation might be inflationary, which is fun when diesel hits $6 and gold just shrugs Gold up 0.64% on the day. Analysts debate whether Fed

Oil at $100 says the disinflation story runs on fumes while the government borrows to pay yesterday's bills · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, September 8, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 Oil at $100 says the disinflation story runs on fumes while the government borrows to pay yesterday's bills average diesel price up 60% since the start of the year. Multiple

Your dollars are still out there, they're just not sitting in Treasuries anymore · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Monday, September 7, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Monday, September 7, 2026 Your dollars are still out there, they're just not sitting in Treasuries anymore Analysts warn of a 'China Shock 2.0' as Asian surplus economies shift state assets

The math stopped working at $73 oil and now we owe 120% of GDP but hey we added 162,000 jobs · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, September 4, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, September 4, 2026 The math stopped working at $73 oil and now we owe 120% of GDP but hey we added 162,000 jobs Gold down 0.28% on the day. Financial commentators debate whether

China hid a trillion dollars in its couch cushions and data centers are the new office parks · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Wednesday, September 2, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Wednesday, September 2, 2026 China hid a trillion dollars in its couch cushions and data centers are the new office parks China's 2025 trade surplus up nearly 25% in 2025. Brad Setser challenges a

The economy where nobody quits and nobody hires just got bombed past $90 oil · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, September 1, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, September 1, 2026 The economy where nobody quits and nobody hires just got bombed past $90 oil surplus of East Asian exporters with weak currencies has doubled since 2023. Brad Setser and others debate the

The Fed is panicking about inflation so bond traders don't have to · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, August 28, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, August 28, 2026 The Fed is panicking about inflation so bond traders don't have to US 2s/30s yield spread down 8bps after Warsh inflation comments. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson

Nvidia made $60 billion in profit last quarter and the rest of the market went red anyway · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, August 27, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, August 27, 2026 Nvidia made $60 billion in profit last quarter and the rest of the market went red anyway iShares Software ETF $IGV up 47% from its April low. Nvidia reported record Q2 revenues

The economy is softening everywhere except the one place consumers still feel great about, which is stocks · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, August 25, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, August 25, 2026 The economy is softening everywhere except the one place consumers still feel great about, which is stocks June new home sales down 10.5% month-over-month. A wave of August US

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Bessent says we can grow our way out of $40 trillion and gold just laughed so hard it hit $4,700 · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Monday, August 24, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Monday, August 24, 2026 Bessent says we can grow our way out of $40 trillion and gold just laughed so hard it hit $4,700 Gold up 1.87% on the day. Treasury Secretary Bessent'

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China's currency totally floats freely if you ignore the $7 trillion in state bank foreign assets · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, August 21, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, August 21, 2026 China's currency totally floats freely if you ignore the $7 trillion in state bank foreign assets Brad Setser presents detailed evidence that China continues to manage its currency through state

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Asia's $2 trillion surplus is going everywhere except your Treasuries and somehow that's the calm part · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, August 20, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, August 20, 2026 Asia's $2 trillion surplus is going everywhere except your Treasuries and somehow that's the calm part Gold up 2.01% on the day. East Asia's combined

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The Treasury quietly doubled its long-end buybacks and would really prefer you not call it yield curve control · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Wednesday, August 19, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Wednesday, August 19, 2026 The Treasury quietly doubled its long-end buybacks and would really prefer you not call it yield curve control Treasury buyback cap for longer-dated nominal coupons up $2 billion to at

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The economy is slowing, costs are rising, and the bond market just decided to freelance · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, August 18, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, August 18, 2026 The economy is slowing, costs are rising, and the bond market just decided to freelance July housing starts up 19.0% from prior. A wave of US and UK economic releases showed

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The Fed is sitting this one out while 30-year yields do whatever they want and Iran seizes tankers just to stay busy · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Monday, August 17, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Monday, August 17, 2026 The Fed is sitting this one out while 30-year yields do whatever they want and Iran seizes tankers just to stay busy Luke Gromen argues forcefully that the US must use

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Your oil price is up 18% and the Fed chair can't get through dinner without a fight · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, July 28, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 Your oil price is up 18% and the Fed chair can't get through dinner without a fight WTI crude up 18% in under two weeks. Iran's closure of

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China hid a record trade surplus behind a pile of gold and somehow that's not even the wildest number today · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Monday, July 27, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Monday, July 27, 2026 China hid a record trade surplus behind a pile of gold and somehow that's not even the wildest number today Gold up 0.42% on the day. Brad Setser argues

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Gold hit $4,055 and REITs are thriving so apparently the boring stuff won the war · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, July 24, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, July 24, 2026 Gold hit $4,055 and REITs are thriving so apparently the boring stuff won the war Silver up 1.08% on the day. A widely circulated leaderboard shows most major assets—from

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Your energy transition got rerouted through a $100 barrel of oil and a 5% Treasury yield · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, July 23, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, July 23, 2026 Your energy transition got rerouted through a $100 barrel of oil and a 5% Treasury yield Sulfur up 146% since start of the Iran war. Brent crude oil surged past $100/barrel

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Sulfur is up 142% and six of nine sectors are faking it so at least something is being honest · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Wednesday, July 22, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Wednesday, July 22, 2026 Sulfur is up 142% and six of nine sectors are faking it so at least something is being honest Sulfur up 142% since start of the Iran war. An ongoing Iran war

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July's hottest trade is selling everything you bought in June · Daily Briefing

Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, July 21, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, July 21, 2026 July's hottest trade is selling everything you bought in June 25 best performing Russell 1,000 stocks in first half of 2026 down 25.4% in July as of yesterday.