macro
Physical Oil Breaks Records While the Labor Market Quietly Runs Out of People · Daily Briefing
Dated Brent hit a nominal all-time high today, and the economy that has to absorb it may have already stopped growing its workforce.
Personal Stakes
We write Personal Stakes because the media tells you what happened without explaining why it matters to you. We break down rates, inflation, policy and global events back to first principles. If you leave sharper than you came, the issue did its job.
macro
WTI Breaks $115 While the Only Sector Hiring Gets a Raise · Daily Briefing
Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, April 7, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, April 7, 2026 WTI Breaks $115 While the Only Sector Hiring Gets a Raise Personal Stakes · Est. read time 5 min The 30-Second Version Oil crossed $115 today and nobody blinked, which tells you
macro
Your Dentist Can't Stockpile Cleanings, and Other Stagflation Problems · Daily Briefing
Services inflation just posted its biggest spike since 2012 while businesses cut workers to survive it. Goldman says AI is already erasing 25,000 jobs a month. And the one sector still hiring? It just got a raise.
macro
Economic Warfare Meets Stagflation While China Measures the Furniture · Daily Briefing
Israel just bombed Iran's piggy bank. The ISM Services inflation gauge posted its biggest spike since 2012. And China reserved Pacific airspace for 40 days, which is 35 days longer than you need for an exercise.
macro
Iran's Economic Strangulation Meets Services Inflation Surge While China Builds Tomorrow · Daily Briefing
The ISM Services prices paid component just posted its biggest monthly jump since 2012. Meanwhile, Israel destroyed Iran's largest petrochemical facility and Trump says they'll have "no bridges." One of these stories determines next week. The other determines next decade.
macro
Oil Shorts Face Career Risk While Workers Vanish · Daily Briefing
Speculators hold massive short positions in crude oil while physical markets scream shortage. Meanwhile, nearly 270,000 Americans stopped looking for work last month. One of these facts is about to break the other.
macro
Oil Shorts Face Career Risk While Workers Vanish · Daily Briefing
Speculators hold massive short positions in crude oil while physical markets scream shortage. Meanwhile, nearly 270,000 Americans stopped looking for work last month. One of these facts is about to break the other.
macro
Oil Hits $141 While Stocks Shrug · Daily Briefing
Physical oil commands crisis prices while paper markets pretend everything's fine. Your mortgage rate doesn't care which one is right.
macro
Markets Rally on Exit Fantasy While Oil Reality Bites · Daily Briefing
Trump promises Iran withdrawal in 2-3 weeks, physical oil trades $23 above futures, and your portfolio just had its best day since May
macro
Hiring Freeze Meets Energy Shock · Daily Briefing
The job market was already broken before oil hit $106. Now employers won't hire but haven't started firing—yet.
macro
Oil Cracks $100 as Fed Blinks First · Daily Briefing
Powell won't fight supply shocks with rate hikes. Meanwhile, Iran loads five tankers at once while we pretend they've been defeated.
macro
Hormuz Week Five: The E-3 Changes Everything · Daily Briefing
Iran shot down our eyes in the sky. Now ground troops look inevitable while China sails through collecting oil.