macro
Oil Cracks $100 as Fed Blinks First · Daily Briefing
Powell won't fight supply shocks with rate hikes. Meanwhile, Iran loads five tankers at once while we pretend they've been defeated.
Personal Stakes
We write Personal Stakes because the media tells you what happened without explaining why it matters to you. We break down rates, inflation, policy and global events back to first principles. If you leave sharper than you came, the issue did its job.
macro
Hormuz Week Five: The E-3 Changes Everything · Daily Briefing
Iran shot down our eyes in the sky. Now ground troops look inevitable while China sails through collecting oil.
macro
Markets Learn to Ignore Trump's Iran Theater · Daily Briefing
Oil traders stopped believing the deadline extensions. Meanwhile, helium shortages threaten to halt chip production within a week.
macro
Bond Vigilantes Set Foreign Policy as Hormuz Crisis Enters Month Two · Daily Briefing
Treasury yields spike above 4.4% every time Trump delays Iran deadlines. Meanwhile, Asian economies face actual fuel shortages, not just higher prices.
macro
Oil Ceasefire Theater Meets Physical Reality · Daily Briefing
Trump's ceasefire plan collided with Iranian rejection while Dubai crude still trades at massive premiums. The Strait remains closed for day 25.
macro
Iran Talks Collapse While Markets Trade the Fantasy · Daily Briefing
Trump claimed "productive" negotiations. Iran said no talks exist. Someone made $580 million betting on oil minutes before the announcement.
macro
Trump Claims Iran Peace Talks That Iran Says Never Happened · Daily Briefing
The president announced "productive conversations" with Tehran. Iran immediately denied any talks occurred. Markets traded the fiction anyway.
macro
Oil Hits $110 as Trump Declares Victory · Daily Briefing
The president says we're winning, but your gas tank and the bond market aren't buying it
macro
Energy War Expands to Natural Gas as Central Banks Turn Hawkish · Daily Briefing
Iran just proved it can destroy LNG infrastructure that takes years to rebuild, and the Bank of England is ready to hike rates into a recession
macro
When Production Infrastructure Becomes the Target · Daily Briefing · Evening Edition
Iran and the U.S. crossed a new line today: attacking actual oil production facilities instead of just transport infrastructure. The market's response tells you everything about how unprepared it was for this escalation.
macro
Iran Hits Production Facilities as Fed Faces Impossible Choice · Daily Briefing · Evening Edition
WTI crude spiked above $99 today as Iran escalated beyond infrastructure to target actual oil production. The Fed meets tomorrow with markets pricing rate hikes to fight supply-driven inflation.
macro
Oil Reverses as Reality Bites · Daily Briefing · Evening Edition
Crude opened at $104 per barrel and closed below Friday's levels. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Kuwait's production collapsed. Treasury Secretary Bessent says oil concerns are overblown. These facts do not reconcile.