We write Personal Stakes because the media tells you what happened without explaining why it matters to you. We break down rates, inflation, policy and global events back to first principles. If you leave sharper than you came, the issue did its job.
macro
Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, September 4, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, September 4, 2026 The math stopped working at $73 oil and now we owe 120% of GDP but hey we added 162,000 jobs Gold down 0.28% on the day. Financial commentators debate whether
macro
Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Wednesday, September 2, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Wednesday, September 2, 2026 China hid a trillion dollars in its couch cushions and data centers are the new office parks China's 2025 trade surplus up nearly 25% in 2025. Brad Setser challenges a
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, September 1, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, September 1, 2026 The economy where nobody quits and nobody hires just got bombed past $90 oil surplus of East Asian exporters with weak currencies has doubled since 2023. Brad Setser and others debate the
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, August 28, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, August 28, 2026 The Fed is panicking about inflation so bond traders don't have to US 2s/30s yield spread down 8bps after Warsh inflation comments. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, August 27, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, August 27, 2026 Nvidia made $60 billion in profit last quarter and the rest of the market went red anyway iShares Software ETF $IGV up 47% from its April low. Nvidia reported record Q2 revenues
macro
Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, August 25, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, August 25, 2026 The economy is softening everywhere except the one place consumers still feel great about, which is stocks June new home sales down 10.5% month-over-month. A wave of August US
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Monday, August 24, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Monday, August 24, 2026 Bessent says we can grow our way out of $40 trillion and gold just laughed so hard it hit $4,700 Gold up 1.87% on the day. Treasury Secretary Bessent'
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Friday, August 21, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Friday, August 21, 2026 China's currency totally floats freely if you ignore the $7 trillion in state bank foreign assets Brad Setser presents detailed evidence that China continues to manage its currency through state
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, August 20, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, August 20, 2026 Asia's $2 trillion surplus is going everywhere except your Treasuries and somehow that's the calm part Gold up 2.01% on the day. East Asia's combined
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Wednesday, August 19, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Wednesday, August 19, 2026 The Treasury quietly doubled its long-end buybacks and would really prefer you not call it yield curve control Treasury buyback cap for longer-dated nominal coupons up $2 billion to at
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, August 18, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, August 18, 2026 The economy is slowing, costs are rising, and the bond market just decided to freelance July housing starts up 19.0% from prior. A wave of US and UK economic releases showed
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Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Monday, August 17, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Monday, August 17, 2026 The Fed is sitting this one out while 30-year yields do whatever they want and Iran seizes tankers just to stay busy Luke Gromen argues forcefully that the US must use