We write Personal Stakes because the media tells you what happened without explaining why it matters to you. We break down rates, inflation, policy and global events back to first principles. If you leave sharper than you came, the issue did its job.
macro
Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Wednesday, April 15, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Wednesday, April 15, 2026 Oil at $100 and the S&P at 7,000 is the market equivalent of texting "I'm fine" during a house fire TTF European natural gas price
macro
Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, April 14, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, April 14, 2026 The S&P 500 is 10 days from all-time highs and a war zone from making sense Natural Gas down 1.07% on the day. The US-Iran war has
macro
Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Monday, April 13, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Monday, April 13, 2026 Hormuz Crisis Collapses Gulf Oil Output, Prices Surge | US Existing Home Sales Disappoint, Consumer Finances Worsen The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf production shut-ins have driven OPEC+ output
macro
Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Thursday, April 9, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Thursday, April 9, 2026 Inflation Was Already Stuck Before the War Started Personal Stakes · Est. read time 6 min The 30-Second Version Meanwhile, WTI crude punched back above $100 intraday as only seven vessels have
macro
Equities surged on ceasefire relief, but Iranian fire actually increased on day one, the Strait remains shut, and the Fed has fewer reasons to cut than before the war started.
macro
Dated Brent hit a nominal all-time high today, and the economy that has to absorb it may have already stopped growing its workforce.
macro
Personal Stakes Personal Stakes · Macro Brief Tuesday, April 7, 2026 Macro Musings · Daily Briefing · Tuesday, April 7, 2026 WTI Breaks $115 While the Only Sector Hiring Gets a Raise Personal Stakes · Est. read time 5 min The 30-Second Version Oil crossed $115 today and nobody blinked, which tells you
macro
Services inflation just posted its biggest spike since 2012 while businesses cut workers to survive it. Goldman says AI is already erasing 25,000 jobs a month. And the one sector still hiring? It just got a raise.
macro
Israel just bombed Iran's piggy bank. The ISM Services inflation gauge posted its biggest spike since 2012. And China reserved Pacific airspace for 40 days, which is 35 days longer than you need for an exercise.
macro
The ISM Services prices paid component just posted its biggest monthly jump since 2012. Meanwhile, Israel destroyed Iran's largest petrochemical facility and Trump says they'll have "no bridges." One of these stories determines next week. The other determines next decade.
macro
Speculators hold massive short positions in crude oil while physical markets scream shortage. Meanwhile, nearly 270,000 Americans stopped looking for work last month. One of these facts is about to break the other.
macro
Speculators hold massive short positions in crude oil while physical markets scream shortage. Meanwhile, nearly 270,000 Americans stopped looking for work last month. One of these facts is about to break the other.