macro
Oil Hits $99 as Supply Shock Goes Mechanical · Daily Briefing · Evening Edition
Brent closed Friday at the second-largest two-week spike since futures began trading. The Fed now faces a 1970s-style dilemma with no clean solution.
macro-musings
macro
When Bombing Oil Terminals Becomes Background Noise · Daily Briefing · Evening Edition
Brent closed just above $100 after the U.S. bombed Iran's largest oil export terminal. Markets barely flinched. Either the most sophisticated intervention in history is keeping prices calm, or we're about to learn what 20% of global oil transit disappearing actually costs.
macro
When Goldman Keeps Moving the Goalposts · Evening Edition
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for approximately two weeks. Goldman has revised their reopening timeline three times in nine days. The gap between those two facts is your weekend.
macro
Oil Shock Reality Check · Morning Edition
Brent crude is up 70% year-to-date. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for approximately two weeks. Your gas price has risen five cents daily for the past week.
macro
When $100 Oil Breaks Everything · Evening Edition
The Strait of Hormuz entered its thirteenth day of closure today. Iran's new Supreme Leader made it clear this isn't ending soon. The market's five-month party just ended.
macro
When the 12-Day War Hits Day 13 · Morning Edition
Iran's new Supreme Leader just made his position clear: the blockade continues indefinitely. Markets are slowly realizing this isn't a disruption—it's a siege.
macro
When the President Says "Show Some Guts" · Evening Edition
Oil war just hit your wallet: gas up 13% in a week means $25-35 extra monthly at the pump, plus food and heating costs rising on the lag. Your $500K retirement account is already down $20K.
macro
When Strategic Reserves Don't Work · Morning Edition
Oil above $90 means gas hits $3.80-$4.00 within weeks, costing your household an extra $144-$240 yearly. Meanwhile, fertilizer spikes are about to make groceries 3-5% pricier, your mortgage stays locked near 7%, and your 401(k) faces a potential $50,000 hit.
macro
When Cabinet Members Move Markets by Accident · Evening Edition
A deleted tweet just moved oil $25 per barrel—your gas bill is about to follow, jumping 60 to 80 cents per gallon within two weeks while your grocery and heating costs spike alongside it.
macro
The Bet Buried in the Futures Curve · Evening Edition
Oil's whipsawing between $90 and $119, and your gas pump is already up $33/month. Groceries follow in April—fertilizer prices are moving now, hitting you later.
macro
The Thing the Consensus Is Missing · Morning Edition
Oil's 56% weekly spike means gas prices rise in two weeks, groceries in April—and your job security depends on whether your industry can absorb stagflation.
macro
The Trap the Fed Didn't Ask For · Evening Edition
Your gas bill just jumped $19 a month, and your grocery bill follows in six weeks. If crude stays above $100, budget for $3.75–$4.00 per gallon and brace for food prices to climb.